A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
